
 ***** Bayesian Error Correction Model ***** 

 *****    Random-Walk Averaging Prior         ***** 

PRIOR hyperparameters 
sig   =     0.10 
tau   =     6.00 
theta =     0.50 
Weight matrix = 
Variable         il         in         ky         mi         oh         pa         tn         wv 
  il         0.0000     0.5000     0.5000     0.0000     0.0000     0.0000     0.0000     0.0000 
  in         0.2500     0.0000     0.2500     0.2500     0.2500     0.0000     0.0000     0.0000 
  ky         0.2000     0.2000     0.0000     0.0000     0.2000     0.0000     0.2000     0.2000 
  mi         0.0000     0.5000     0.0000     0.0000     0.5000     0.0000     0.0000     0.0000 
  oh         0.0000     0.2000     0.2000     0.2000     0.0000     0.2000     0.2000     0.2000 
  pa         0.0000     0.0000     0.0000     0.0000     0.5000     0.0000     0.0000     0.5000 
  tn         0.0000     0.0000     1.0000     0.0000     0.0000     0.0000     0.0000     0.0000 
  wv         0.0000     0.0000     0.3300     0.0000     0.3300     0.3300     0.0000     0.0000 

Dependent Variable =               il 
R-squared     =    0.8957 
Rbar-squared  =    0.7843 
sige          =    7.4005 
Nobs, Nvars   =    173,    79 
******************************************************************
Variable                Coefficient      t-statistic    t-probability 
  il  lag1                 0.335837         5.023099         0.000001 
  il  lag2                 0.043958         1.080817         0.281283 
  il  lag3                 0.009875         0.353027         0.724498 
  il  lag4                 0.000684         0.032173         0.974371 
  il  lag5                -0.000677        -0.039553         0.968495 
  il  lag6                 0.000068         0.004772         0.996198 
  il  lag7                 0.000606         0.049145         0.960860 
  il  lag8                -0.000055        -0.005062         0.995967 
  il  lag9                -0.000409        -0.042495         0.966153 
  in  lag1                 0.414473         4.221484         0.000039 
  in  lag2                -0.121890        -0.980402         0.328257 
  in  lag3                -0.100608        -0.827141         0.409297 
  in  lag4                 0.128131         1.135325         0.257810 
  in  lag5                 0.008814         0.085011         0.932351 
  in  lag6                 0.035918         0.368929         0.712632 
  in  lag7                 0.117538         1.291744         0.198169 
  in  lag8                 0.010196         0.119989         0.904631 
  in  lag9                -0.023525        -0.327492         0.743692 
  ky  lag1                 0.239837         1.988094         0.048379 
  ky  lag2                -0.129787        -0.718587         0.473365 
  ky  lag3                -0.107054        -0.608915         0.543379 
  ky  lag4                 0.125688         0.810668         0.418670 
  ky  lag5                 0.017714         0.127796         0.898459 
  ky  lag6                -0.018924        -0.153276         0.878360 
  ky  lag7                -0.043683        -0.392028         0.695520 
  ky  lag8                -0.033001        -0.331614         0.740582 
  ky  lag9                -0.072045        -0.875958         0.382268 
  mi  lag1                -0.057652        -1.371558         0.171977 
  mi  lag2                -0.008524        -0.267762         0.789202 
  mi  lag3                -0.001567        -0.064430         0.948702 
  mi  lag4                 0.003975         0.205529         0.837401 
  mi  lag5                 0.005223         0.325215         0.745411 
  mi  lag6                -0.000163        -0.011941         0.990487 
  mi  lag7                 0.001447         0.122460         0.902677 
  mi  lag8                 0.000334         0.032055         0.974465 
  mi  lag9                 0.001499         0.160623         0.872578 
  oh  lag1                 0.081979         1.240706         0.216394 
  oh  lag2                 0.024950         0.612687         0.540888 
  oh  lag3                 0.016433         0.585825         0.558757 
  oh  lag4                 0.006451         0.302619         0.762544 
  oh  lag5                 0.003528         0.205493         0.837429 
  oh  lag6                 0.001039         0.072343         0.942412 
  oh  lag7                 0.000881         0.071426         0.943141 
  oh  lag8                 0.000613         0.056732         0.954824 
  oh  lag9                 0.001299         0.135140         0.892659 
  pa  lag1                 0.024594         0.324485         0.745963 
  pa  lag2                 0.015210         0.373973         0.708882 
  pa  lag3                 0.009717         0.348818         0.727650 
  pa  lag4                -0.000047        -0.002204         0.998244 
  pa  lag5                -0.000404        -0.023681         0.981134 
  pa  lag6                -0.002375        -0.166359         0.868069 
  pa  lag7                -0.001228        -0.100029         0.920437 
  pa  lag8                 0.001216         0.112911         0.910232 
  pa  lag9                 0.001824         0.190297         0.849300 
  tn  lag1                -0.039433        -0.600839         0.548734 
  tn  lag2                -0.014852        -0.374013         0.708852 
  tn  lag3                -0.010154        -0.367917         0.713385 
  tn  lag4                -0.008151        -0.386115         0.699886 
  tn  lag5                -0.008331        -0.488158         0.626056 
  tn  lag6                -0.005546        -0.387862         0.698595 
  tn  lag7                -0.001180        -0.095945         0.923675 
  tn  lag8                 0.000147         0.013644         0.989129 
  tn  lag9                 0.001066         0.110989         0.911754 
  wv  lag1                -0.050086        -1.518519         0.130709 
  wv  lag2                -0.012946        -0.528787         0.597631 
  wv  lag3                -0.002730        -0.136425         0.891644 
  wv  lag4                -0.006969        -0.408220         0.683617 
  wv  lag5                -0.001720        -0.117641         0.906489 
  wv  lag6                -0.012782        -1.008981         0.314393 
  wv  lag7                -0.005796        -0.518429         0.604822 
  wv  lag8                 0.000003         0.000258         0.999794 
  wv  lag9                 0.003478         0.386559         0.699558 
ec term   il              -0.331440        -2.492562         0.013623 
ec term   in              -0.128712        -1.106111         0.270214 
ec term   ky              -0.473618        -2.124601         0.035040 
ec term   mi               0.587235         2.557563         0.011399 
ec term   oh              -0.544925        -2.560581         0.011304 
ec term   pa              -0.157826        -0.797037         0.426522 
constant                  -6.204400        -1.180138         0.239565 


Dependent Variable =               in 
R-squared     =    0.8940 
Rbar-squared  =    0.7807 
sige          =    8.0857 
Nobs, Nvars   =    173,    79 
******************************************************************
Variable                Coefficient      t-statistic    t-probability 
  il  lag1                 0.409203         3.840933         0.000172 
  il  lag2                -0.007056        -0.043544         0.965318 
  il  lag3                 0.092387         0.583013         0.560644 
  il  lag4                -0.113499        -0.821549         0.412465 
  il  lag5                -0.114037        -0.939787         0.348637 
  il  lag6                -0.050722        -0.472013         0.637513 
  il  lag7                -0.059314        -0.615680         0.538915 
  il  lag8                -0.080001        -0.917468         0.360175 
  il  lag9                -0.086595        -1.150848         0.251383 
  in  lag1                 0.165015         2.567954         0.011075 
  in  lag2                 0.021907         0.610753         0.542164 
  in  lag3                 0.007878         0.322313         0.747605 
  in  lag4                 0.004850         0.262609         0.793164 
  in  lag5                 0.001944         0.131112         0.895839 
  in  lag6                 0.003187         0.257619         0.797007 
  in  lag7                 0.003791         0.356761         0.721705 
  in  lag8                 0.001091         0.117102         0.906915 
  in  lag9                 0.000732         0.088305         0.929736 
  ky  lag1                 0.190668         1.678052         0.095143 
  ky  lag2                 0.075277         0.416419         0.677619 
  ky  lag3                -0.010949        -0.061982         0.950649 
  ky  lag4                -0.034222        -0.226271         0.821258 
  ky  lag5                 0.078817         0.598210         0.550482 
  ky  lag6                 0.015957         0.137317         0.890940 
  ky  lag7                 0.000914         0.008864         0.992938 
  ky  lag8                 0.001716         0.018953         0.984900 
  ky  lag9                 0.029917         0.393079         0.694745 
  mi  lag1                 0.039215         0.766974         0.444142 
  mi  lag2                 0.024192         0.438741         0.661397 
  mi  lag3                 0.092230         1.639507         0.102925 
  mi  lag4                -0.173225        -3.183200         0.001727 
  mi  lag5                -0.020738        -0.376430         0.707059 
  mi  lag6                 0.033082         0.634239         0.526763 
  mi  lag7                 0.042027         0.835760         0.404443 
  mi  lag8                -0.049471        -1.015365         0.311350 
  mi  lag9                -0.011054        -0.260448         0.794828 
  oh  lag1                 0.113966         1.014942         0.311551 
  oh  lag2                 0.054562         0.339368         0.734744 
  oh  lag3                -0.065238        -0.440736         0.659955 
  oh  lag4                -0.012562        -0.096632         0.923131 
  oh  lag5                 0.003155         0.027150         0.978371 
  oh  lag6                 0.075984         0.716571         0.474605 
  oh  lag7                 0.026998         0.281808         0.778428 
  oh  lag8                 0.008278         0.096585         0.923168 
  oh  lag9                 0.038067         0.509323         0.611175 
  pa  lag1                 0.022012         0.326194         0.744672 
  pa  lag2                 0.009675         0.270654         0.786980 
  pa  lag3                 0.002054         0.084390         0.932844 
  pa  lag4                 0.000025         0.001367         0.998911 
  pa  lag5                -0.003646        -0.246496         0.805591 
  pa  lag6                -0.002128        -0.172093         0.863565 
  pa  lag7                -0.001216        -0.114560         0.908927 
  pa  lag8                -0.001031        -0.110865         0.911852 
  pa  lag9                -0.001054        -0.127305         0.898847 
  tn  lag1                 0.064995         1.087683         0.278248 
  tn  lag2                 0.016133         0.458925         0.646864 
  tn  lag3                 0.001643         0.067968         0.945889 
  tn  lag4                -0.000192        -0.010450         0.991674 
  tn  lag5                -0.001938        -0.130966         0.895954 
  tn  lag6                -0.000405        -0.032695         0.973955 
  tn  lag7                 0.000051         0.004822         0.996158 
  tn  lag8                 0.000645         0.069267         0.944857 
  tn  lag9                 0.000781         0.094234         0.925032 
  wv  lag1                 0.018925         0.568437         0.570475 
  wv  lag2                -0.000930        -0.036460         0.970957 
  wv  lag3                -0.004979        -0.249504         0.803267 
  wv  lag4                -0.004645        -0.286669         0.774709 
  wv  lag5                -0.003152        -0.233713         0.815484 
  wv  lag6                -0.002493        -0.217460         0.828106 
  wv  lag7                 0.000471         0.046977         0.962586 
  wv  lag8                -0.000582        -0.065661         0.947724 
  wv  lag9                 0.000145         0.018302         0.985419 
ec term   il               0.109351         0.687701         0.492562 
ec term   in               0.026095         0.198863         0.842603 
ec term   ky               0.130463         0.517591         0.605405 
ec term   mi              -0.172489        -0.674857         0.500667 
ec term   oh              -0.071317        -0.284312         0.776511 
ec term   pa               0.140031         0.665489         0.506624 
constant                  -0.859405        -0.143839         0.885795 


Dependent Variable =               ky 
R-squared     =    0.9379 
Rbar-squared  =    0.8715 
sige          =    4.7013 
Nobs, Nvars   =    173,    79 
******************************************************************
Variable                Coefficient      t-statistic    t-probability 
  il  lag1                 0.190796         1.949389         0.052866 
  il  lag2                -0.143836        -1.039125         0.300197 
  il  lag3                 0.000675         0.004942         0.996063 
  il  lag4                 0.029672         0.239686         0.810858 
  il  lag5                -0.025772        -0.227073         0.820635 
  il  lag6                 0.058890         0.567396         0.571181 
  il  lag7                 0.033578         0.357484         0.721165 
  il  lag8                -0.009841        -0.113274         0.909945 
  il  lag9                 0.068068         0.897384         0.370761 
  in  lag1                 0.174511         1.922671         0.056164 
  in  lag2                 0.042128         0.376446         0.707047 
  in  lag3                -0.117166        -1.035471         0.301894 
  in  lag4                 0.002890         0.027549         0.978054 
  in  lag5                -0.070426        -0.725117         0.469360 
  in  lag6                -0.088998        -0.985301         0.325852 
  in  lag7                -0.027793        -0.334329         0.738536 
  in  lag8                -0.029108        -0.370170         0.711709 
  in  lag9                -0.072091        -1.079643         0.281804 
  ky  lag1                 0.339228         5.582841         0.000000 
  ky  lag2                 0.055243         1.528854         0.128127 
  ky  lag3                 0.015440         0.623223         0.533959 
  ky  lag4                 0.006595         0.351121         0.725925 
  ky  lag5                 0.004361         0.288204         0.773535 
  ky  lag6                 0.004463         0.352520         0.724878 
  ky  lag7                 0.002193         0.201594         0.840471 
  ky  lag8                 0.001226         0.128512         0.897893 
  ky  lag9                 0.000013         0.001571         0.998748 
  mi  lag1                -0.011545        -0.319384         0.749821 
  mi  lag2                 0.012535         0.454900         0.649751 
  mi  lag3                 0.006348         0.294871         0.768446 
  mi  lag4                -0.004199        -0.245053         0.806706 
  mi  lag5                 0.002813         0.197587         0.843600 
  mi  lag6                 0.002008         0.166119         0.868257 
  mi  lag7                 0.000323         0.030816         0.975451 
  mi  lag8                 0.004001         0.433215         0.665398 
  mi  lag9                 0.003571         0.432786         0.665709 
  oh  lag1                 0.198790         1.843961         0.066899 
  oh  lag2                 0.037827         0.242528         0.808658 
  oh  lag3                 0.021120         0.137046         0.891153 
  oh  lag4                -0.007503        -0.054319         0.956744 
  oh  lag5                 0.061309         0.495892         0.620600 
  oh  lag6                -0.030788        -0.277486         0.781738 
  oh  lag7                 0.006250         0.062705         0.950074 
  oh  lag8                -0.014256        -0.159206         0.873692 
  oh  lag9                -0.107887        -1.402603         0.162527 
  pa  lag1                 0.156263         2.336332         0.020620 
  pa  lag2                 0.034322         0.933054         0.352092 
  pa  lag3                 0.005958         0.236825         0.813073 
  pa  lag4                 0.003336         0.175338         0.861019 
  pa  lag5                 0.001611         0.105423         0.916163 
  pa  lag6                 0.001547         0.121214         0.903662 
  pa  lag7                 0.000956         0.087281         0.930549 
  pa  lag8                 0.000516         0.053822         0.957139 
  pa  lag9                -0.000281        -0.032914         0.973781 
  tn  lag1                 0.097102         1.153288         0.250383 
  tn  lag2                -0.040832        -0.400876         0.689006 
  tn  lag3                -0.122147        -1.277789         0.203036 
  tn  lag4                 0.069692         0.766249         0.444572 
  tn  lag5                 0.052707         0.608891         0.543396 
  tn  lag6                 0.033518         0.400829         0.689040 
  tn  lag7                -0.055638        -0.708839         0.479378 
  tn  lag8                 0.013888         0.189871         0.849633 
  tn  lag9                -0.020304        -0.309267         0.757491 
  wv  lag1                -0.042080        -1.256727         0.210547 
  wv  lag2                 0.002602         0.080089         0.936259 
  wv  lag3                 0.019319         0.626320         0.531931 
  wv  lag4                 0.008038         0.272347         0.785680 
  wv  lag5                 0.020585         0.751650         0.453283 
  wv  lag6                 0.016512         0.637659         0.524539 
  wv  lag7                -0.003682        -0.146926         0.883362 
  wv  lag8                -0.000415        -0.016912         0.986526 
  wv  lag9                 0.002746         0.118515         0.905797 
ec term   il              -0.213011        -1.755425         0.080957 
ec term   in              -0.064758        -0.627952         0.530863 
ec term   ky               0.315651         1.606548         0.109977 
ec term   mi               0.010457         0.053556         0.957350 
ec term   oh              -0.430610        -2.186155         0.030147 
ec term   pa              -0.127042        -0.671916         0.502533 
constant                  -5.286725        -1.173835         0.242074 


Dependent Variable =               mi 
R-squared     =    0.5730 
Rbar-squared  =    0.1167 
sige          =   56.0367 
Nobs, Nvars   =    173,    79 
******************************************************************
Variable                Coefficient      t-statistic    t-probability 
  il  lag1                -0.008825        -0.102715         0.918308 
  il  lag2                -0.004110        -0.091342         0.927326 
  il  lag3                -0.000825        -0.027292         0.978258 
  il  lag4                 0.000097         0.004249         0.996615 
  il  lag5                -0.000505        -0.027714         0.977922 
  il  lag6                -0.000641        -0.042144         0.966432 
  il  lag7                -0.000961        -0.073700         0.941334 
  il  lag8                -0.000847        -0.074257         0.940891 
  il  lag9                -0.000539        -0.053158         0.957668 
  in  lag1                 0.466837         3.055538         0.002603 
  in  lag2                -0.394036        -1.563698         0.119716 
  in  lag3                 0.051007         0.219013         0.826898 
  in  lag4                 0.049612         0.251836         0.801467 
  in  lag5                 0.102725         0.606970         0.544667 
  in  lag6                 0.048569         0.328000         0.743309 
  in  lag7                 0.062720         0.478800         0.632685 
  in  lag8                 0.050847         0.434951         0.664140 
  in  lag9                -0.090023        -0.876374         0.382042 
  ky  lag1                 0.031230         0.364199         0.716154 
  ky  lag2                 0.010440         0.232643         0.816314 
  ky  lag3                 0.005143         0.170396         0.864898 
  ky  lag4                 0.000721         0.031755         0.974704 
  ky  lag5                -0.000115        -0.006324         0.994961 
  ky  lag6                -0.000479        -0.031529         0.974884 
  ky  lag7                -0.000936        -0.071901         0.942764 
  ky  lag8                -0.000470        -0.041260         0.967136 
  ky  lag9                -0.000888        -0.087581         0.930311 
  mi  lag1                 0.224790         3.140687         0.001983 
  mi  lag2                 0.050413         1.203229         0.230532 
  mi  lag3                 0.018040         0.618386         0.537134 
  mi  lag4                 0.001058         0.047539         0.962138 
  mi  lag5                 0.006683         0.372106         0.710269 
  mi  lag6                 0.001870         0.124356         0.901178 
  mi  lag7                 0.000412         0.031914         0.974578 
  mi  lag8                 0.001292         0.114022         0.909352 
  mi  lag9                -0.000484        -0.047971         0.961795 
  oh  lag1                 0.317713         1.987296         0.048468 
  oh  lag2                 0.044656         0.163334         0.870446 
  oh  lag3                -0.139704        -0.553067         0.580932 
  oh  lag4                -0.050278        -0.237898         0.812242 
  oh  lag5                 0.042367         0.236138         0.813605 
  oh  lag6                -0.113617        -0.728366         0.467375 
  oh  lag7                -0.060305        -0.442209         0.658890 
  oh  lag8                -0.034909        -0.290454         0.771817 
  oh  lag9                -0.094161        -0.882260         0.378860 
  pa  lag1                -0.056282        -0.649376         0.516956 
  pa  lag2                 0.001911         0.042629         0.966046 
  pa  lag3                -0.006019        -0.199609         0.842021 
  pa  lag4                -0.000965        -0.042526         0.966129 
  pa  lag5                -0.000247        -0.013585         0.989177 
  pa  lag6                -0.001440        -0.094875         0.924524 
  pa  lag7                -0.000756        -0.058031         0.953791 
  pa  lag8                -0.000368        -0.032319         0.974255 
  pa  lag9                -0.000744        -0.073418         0.941559 
  tn  lag1                 0.005738         0.067264         0.946449 
  tn  lag2                 0.007022         0.156583         0.875756 
  tn  lag3                -0.000452        -0.014989         0.988058 
  tn  lag4                 0.001087         0.047832         0.961905 
  tn  lag5                -0.001198        -0.065770         0.947637 
  tn  lag6                -0.000962        -0.063346         0.949564 
  tn  lag7                -0.001143        -0.087720         0.930201 
  tn  lag8                -0.001046        -0.091692         0.927049 
  tn  lag9                -0.000756        -0.074524         0.940680 
  wv  lag1                -0.134373        -2.285555         0.023494 
  wv  lag2                -0.003255        -0.083192         0.933795 
  wv  lag3                -0.009117        -0.324579         0.745892 
  wv  lag4                -0.003850        -0.177190         0.859566 
  wv  lag5                 0.003520         0.199455         0.842141 
  wv  lag6                 0.000660         0.044466         0.964584 
  wv  lag7                -0.001866        -0.145851         0.884209 
  wv  lag8                -0.000197        -0.017494         0.986063 
  wv  lag9                -0.001184        -0.118163         0.906075 
ec term   il              -0.597539        -2.055103         0.041372 
ec term   in              -0.561065        -2.019786         0.044949 
ec term   ky               0.036967         0.076113         0.939417 
ec term   mi               0.600119         1.129986         0.260046 
ec term   oh              -0.086962        -0.190108         0.849447 
ec term   pa              -0.993653        -2.093129         0.037796 
constant                 -15.729864        -1.301329         0.194876 


Dependent Variable =               oh 
R-squared     =    0.9070 
Rbar-squared  =    0.8077 
sige          =    6.2435 
Nobs, Nvars   =    173,    79 
******************************************************************
Variable                Coefficient      t-statistic    t-probability 
  il  lag1                 0.077112         1.344495         0.180549 
  il  lag2                 0.012637         0.389088         0.697690 
  il  lag3                 0.004002         0.180954         0.856615 
  il  lag4                 0.001997         0.119401         0.905096 
  il  lag5                -0.000374        -0.027820         0.977838 
  il  lag6                -0.000750        -0.066813         0.946807 
  il  lag7                -0.000915        -0.094897         0.924506 
  il  lag8                -0.000772        -0.091400         0.927281 
  il  lag9                -0.000625        -0.083167         0.933815 
  in  lag1                 0.248811         2.724611         0.007099 
  in  lag2                 0.047202         0.366950         0.714105 
  in  lag3                 0.046554         0.360855         0.718648 
  in  lag4                 0.048532         0.418073         0.676412 
  in  lag5                 0.035527         0.337924         0.735830 
  in  lag6                -0.019553        -0.215231         0.829841 
  in  lag7                 0.040095         0.485523         0.627920 
  in  lag8                 0.018375         0.241771         0.809244 
  in  lag9                 0.003603         0.054151         0.956877 
  ky  lag1                 0.234319         2.193496         0.029605 
  ky  lag2                -0.063877        -0.373419         0.709293 
  ky  lag3                -0.182445        -1.132779         0.258874 
  ky  lag4                -0.105026        -0.760927         0.447737 
  ky  lag5                 0.012417         0.104224         0.917113 
  ky  lag6                 0.028795         0.274174         0.784278 
  ky  lag7                -0.012509        -0.134560         0.893116 
  ky  lag8                -0.039573        -0.478461         0.632926 
  ky  lag9                -0.103742        -1.451437         0.148469 
  mi  lag1                 0.006496         0.132279         0.894918 
  mi  lag2                -0.027328        -0.503006         0.615600 
  mi  lag3                -0.009695        -0.175404         0.860968 
  mi  lag4                -0.095640        -1.774150         0.077797 
  mi  lag5                 0.016173         0.301082         0.763714 
  mi  lag6                 0.028414         0.543652         0.587381 
  mi  lag7                -0.017514        -0.355628         0.722552 
  mi  lag8                 0.004482         0.096317         0.923381 
  mi  lag9                -0.001733        -0.043115         0.965659 
  oh  lag1                 0.219625         3.875308         0.000151 
  oh  lag2                 0.048845         1.499892         0.135465 
  oh  lag3                 0.017451         0.786508         0.432646 
  oh  lag4                 0.008980         0.535168         0.593221 
  oh  lag5                 0.005084         0.377143         0.706529 
  oh  lag6                 0.003925         0.348724         0.727721 
  oh  lag7                 0.003083         0.319168         0.749984 
  oh  lag8                 0.001940         0.229311         0.818898 
  oh  lag9                 0.001291         0.171637         0.863924 
  pa  lag1                 0.033293         0.312861         0.754763 
  pa  lag2                 0.198449         1.367467         0.173253 
  pa  lag3                 0.078960         0.582166         0.561213 
  pa  lag4                 0.055622         0.448471         0.654374 
  pa  lag5                 0.059370         0.536581         0.592246 
  pa  lag6                 0.104508         1.046406         0.296833 
  pa  lag7                 0.102603         1.123351         0.262845 
  pa  lag8                 0.105274         1.267113         0.206818 
  pa  lag9                 0.058755         0.775415         0.439153 
  tn  lag1                 0.115048         1.270624         0.205568 
  tn  lag2                -0.001326        -0.011372         0.990940 
  tn  lag3                -0.050332        -0.471832         0.637641 
  tn  lag4                 0.137556         1.386636         0.167337 
  tn  lag5                -0.096759        -1.034820         0.302198 
  tn  lag6                 0.062399         0.707839         0.479998 
  tn  lag7                 0.028189         0.346212         0.729604 
  tn  lag8                 0.026787         0.360993         0.718545 
  tn  lag9                -0.039749        -0.604492         0.546309 
  wv  lag1                -0.040429        -1.013650         0.312165 
  wv  lag2                -0.083346        -1.597673         0.111941 
  wv  lag3                -0.071211        -1.453498         0.147897 
  wv  lag4                -0.027938        -0.615755         0.538865 
  wv  lag5                -0.037667        -0.887143         0.376233 
  wv  lag6                -0.053464        -1.374851         0.170956 
  wv  lag7                -0.053688        -1.450947         0.148605 
  wv  lag8                -0.038801        -1.097791         0.273821 
  wv  lag9                -0.020405        -0.615076         0.539313 
ec term   il               0.133055         1.009844         0.313981 
ec term   in              -0.023509        -0.193830         0.846536 
ec term   ky               0.500673         2.194662         0.029520 
ec term   mi              -0.228474        -0.952107         0.342371 
ec term   oh               0.701614         3.316897         0.001109 
ec term   pa               0.068169         0.331743         0.740485 
constant                   2.975157         0.536424         0.592355 


Dependent Variable =               pa 
R-squared     =    0.3686 
Rbar-squared  =   -0.3060 
sige          =   26.9035 
Nobs, Nvars   =    173,    79 
******************************************************************
Variable                Coefficient      t-statistic    t-probability 
  il  lag1                 0.021484         0.303033         0.762229 
  il  lag2                -0.002317        -0.060684         0.951681 
  il  lag3                -0.002156        -0.083620         0.933455 
  il  lag4                -0.000519        -0.026702         0.978728 
  il  lag5                 0.000075         0.004820         0.996160 
  il  lag6                 0.000197         0.015172         0.987912 
  il  lag7                -0.000536        -0.048121         0.961675 
  il  lag8                -0.000183        -0.018734         0.985075 
  il  lag9                -0.000277        -0.031902         0.974587 
  in  lag1                 0.023314         0.329360         0.742282 
  in  lag2                 0.000899         0.023603         0.981196 
  in  lag3                 0.001017         0.039499         0.968538 
  in  lag4                 0.000897         0.046228         0.963182 
  in  lag5                 0.001399         0.089880         0.928487 
  in  lag6                 0.001546         0.119005         0.905410 
  in  lag7                 0.001443         0.129491         0.897120 
  in  lag8                 0.000402         0.041201         0.967183 
  in  lag9                 0.000242         0.027837         0.977824 
  ky  lag1                 0.043636         0.612791         0.540819 
  ky  lag2                 0.004234         0.110919         0.911809 
  ky  lag3                 0.001208         0.046869         0.962672 
  ky  lag4                 0.000719         0.037047         0.970490 
  ky  lag5                 0.000820         0.052706         0.958027 
  ky  lag6                -0.000218        -0.016784         0.986629 
  ky  lag7                -0.000279        -0.025038         0.980054 
  ky  lag8                -0.000571        -0.058589         0.953347 
  ky  lag9                -0.000570        -0.065761         0.947644 
  mi  lag1                -0.015081        -0.268259         0.788820 
  mi  lag2                -0.005664        -0.162502         0.871100 
  mi  lag3                 0.000407         0.016525         0.986835 
  mi  lag4                -0.004163        -0.220343         0.825864 
  mi  lag5                -0.000147        -0.009624         0.992332 
  mi  lag6                 0.000914         0.071345         0.943206 
  mi  lag7                 0.000918         0.083297         0.933712 
  mi  lag8                 0.000502         0.051925         0.958649 
  mi  lag9                 0.000705         0.081855         0.934856 
  oh  lag1                 0.357432         2.637809         0.009105 
  oh  lag2                -0.048113        -0.201334         0.840674 
  oh  lag3                -0.103497        -0.453494         0.650761 
  oh  lag4                -0.022891        -0.122583         0.902580 
  oh  lag5                -0.019264        -0.123341         0.901981 
  oh  lag6                 0.007325         0.054851         0.956321 
  oh  lag7                -0.004221        -0.036313         0.971075 
  oh  lag8                -0.022836        -0.223886         0.823110 
  oh  lag9                -0.004976        -0.055736         0.955616 
  pa  lag1                -0.003433        -0.046068         0.963309 
  pa  lag2                 0.017578         0.454679         0.649910 
  pa  lag3                 0.003480         0.134115         0.893468 
  pa  lag4                 0.001677         0.085962         0.931596 
  pa  lag5                 0.000407         0.026080         0.979224 
  pa  lag6                -0.000035        -0.002706         0.997844 
  pa  lag7                -0.000361        -0.032364         0.974219 
  pa  lag8                -0.000265        -0.027141         0.978378 
  pa  lag9                -0.000243        -0.027935         0.977746 
  tn  lag1                 0.022470         0.317588         0.751181 
  tn  lag2                 0.012084         0.317172         0.751496 
  tn  lag3                 0.000915         0.035539         0.971691 
  tn  lag4                 0.000657         0.033833         0.973049 
  tn  lag5                -0.001772        -0.113755         0.909564 
  tn  lag6                 0.000549         0.042273         0.966330 
  tn  lag7                 0.000548         0.049115         0.960884 
  tn  lag8                 0.000453         0.046387         0.963056 
  tn  lag9                 0.000019         0.002195         0.998252 
  wv  lag1                 0.097844         1.843270         0.067001 
  wv  lag2                 0.008444         0.151798         0.879523 
  wv  lag3                 0.022188         0.416503         0.677558 
  wv  lag4                -0.006424        -0.127575         0.898634 
  wv  lag5                -0.008796        -0.182884         0.855103 
  wv  lag6                -0.004697        -0.101793         0.919039 
  wv  lag7                 0.008075         0.180616         0.856881 
  wv  lag8                -0.015281        -0.354624         0.723303 
  wv  lag9                -0.016813        -0.416573         0.677507 
ec term   il              -0.157280        -0.747826         0.455580 
ec term   in              -0.011449        -0.056322         0.955150 
ec term   ky               0.161501         0.466886         0.641169 
ec term   mi               0.169288         0.446767         0.655602 
ec term   oh              -0.175674        -0.540431         0.589595 
ec term   pa               0.114213         0.325289         0.745356 
constant                  -5.365818        -0.622275         0.534580 


Dependent Variable =               tn 
R-squared     =    0.7267 
Rbar-squared  =    0.4347 
sige          =   11.5032 
Nobs, Nvars   =    173,    79 
******************************************************************
Variable                Coefficient      t-statistic    t-probability 
  il  lag1                 0.005518         0.079692         0.936574 
  il  lag2                -0.004989        -0.120264         0.904414 
  il  lag3                -0.006941        -0.244140         0.807412 
  il  lag4                -0.000960        -0.044515         0.964546 
  il  lag5                 0.000537         0.030932         0.975360 
  il  lag6                 0.001494         0.102960         0.918114 
  il  lag7                 0.000872         0.069939         0.944323 
  il  lag8                -0.000177        -0.016167         0.987120 
  il  lag9                -0.000006        -0.000655         0.999478 
  in  lag1                 0.082270         1.178758         0.240113 
  in  lag2                 0.023963         0.581522         0.561645 
  in  lag3                 0.011972         0.422215         0.673392 
  in  lag4                 0.014176         0.658558         0.511055 
  in  lag5                 0.010163         0.586196         0.558508 
  in  lag6                 0.006931         0.477786         0.633406 
  in  lag7                 0.005469         0.438632         0.661476 
  in  lag8                 0.003238         0.296210         0.767425 
  in  lag9                 0.001602         0.164677         0.869391 
  ky  lag1                 0.620684         4.792259         0.000004 
  ky  lag2                -0.456628        -2.259439         0.025104 
  ky  lag3                 0.015696         0.078842         0.937249 
  ky  lag4                -0.004654        -0.027037         0.978461 
  ky  lag5                 0.023538         0.156344         0.875944 
  ky  lag6                -0.015421        -0.116181         0.907644 
  ky  lag7                -0.059858        -0.506370         0.613242 
  ky  lag8                -0.001886        -0.018176         0.985519 
  ky  lag9                 0.016478         0.191127         0.848650 
  mi  lag1                 0.034441         0.724260         0.469885 
  mi  lag2                -0.023001        -0.670768         0.503263 
  mi  lag3                -0.005336        -0.208344         0.835206 
  mi  lag4                -0.002727        -0.135528         0.892352 
  mi  lag5                 0.007061         0.426935         0.669958 
  mi  lag6                 0.003105         0.222367         0.824290 
  mi  lag7                 0.004401         0.364151         0.716190 
  mi  lag8                 0.002428         0.227638         0.820196 
  mi  lag9                 0.001022         0.107186         0.914765 
  oh  lag1                 0.072608         1.035612         0.301829 
  oh  lag2                 0.020510         0.491851         0.623448 
  oh  lag3                 0.010362         0.362428         0.717474 
  oh  lag4                 0.002687         0.123947         0.901501 
  oh  lag5                 0.002358         0.135210         0.892603 
  oh  lag6                 0.000991         0.067949         0.945905 
  oh  lag7                 0.003352         0.267737         0.789221 
  oh  lag8                 0.001090         0.099405         0.920932 
  oh  lag9                 0.001494         0.153199         0.878420 
  pa  lag1                 0.064615         0.823877         0.411144 
  pa  lag2                 0.016628         0.399429         0.690070 
  pa  lag3                 0.001795         0.063185         0.949692 
  pa  lag4                -0.001082        -0.050178         0.960038 
  pa  lag5                -0.000436        -0.025117         0.979990 
  pa  lag6                -0.001098        -0.075682         0.939760 
  pa  lag7                 0.004173         0.334669         0.738280 
  pa  lag8                -0.000856        -0.078308         0.937674 
  pa  lag9                -0.000647        -0.066459         0.947089 
  tn  lag1                 0.249043         3.646962         0.000351 
  tn  lag2                 0.047638         1.164899         0.245664 
  tn  lag3                 0.012332         0.436123         0.663292 
  tn  lag4                 0.010074         0.467634         0.640635 
  tn  lag5                 0.003477         0.200053         0.841674 
  tn  lag6                 0.003217         0.221255         0.825155 
  tn  lag7                 0.002267         0.181478         0.856205 
  tn  lag8                 0.002286         0.208769         0.834874 
  tn  lag9                 0.001597         0.163955         0.869958 
  wv  lag1                 0.001561         0.042623         0.966051 
  wv  lag2                 0.011088         0.421992         0.673555 
  wv  lag3                 0.002203         0.104006         0.917285 
  wv  lag4                -0.002844        -0.160113         0.872979 
  wv  lag5                -0.000868        -0.057575         0.954154 
  wv  lag6                -0.003832        -0.293253         0.769680 
  wv  lag7                 0.010037         0.872454         0.384170 
  wv  lag8                -0.003371        -0.329129         0.742456 
  wv  lag9                -0.000432        -0.046865         0.962675 
ec term   il               0.145757         0.928903         0.354233 
ec term   in              -0.003429        -0.024601         0.980402 
ec term   ky              -0.352566        -1.447372         0.149602 
ec term   mi              -0.467374        -1.718776         0.087444 
ec term   oh               0.346644         1.407073         0.161200 
ec term   pa              -0.495981        -2.107833         0.036486 
constant                   3.522956         0.569356         0.569853 


Dependent Variable =               wv 
R-squared     =    0.3367 
Rbar-squared  =   -0.3720 
sige          =  205.7249 
Nobs, Nvars   =    173,    79 
******************************************************************
Variable                Coefficient      t-statistic    t-probability 
  il  lag1                 0.004304         0.056413         0.955078 
  il  lag2                -0.000838        -0.021695         0.982717 
  il  lag3                -0.000804        -0.031138         0.975195 
  il  lag4                -0.000357        -0.018434         0.985314 
  il  lag5                -0.000434        -0.027993         0.977700 
  il  lag6                -0.000407        -0.031479         0.974924 
  il  lag7                -0.000648        -0.058454         0.953455 
  il  lag8                -0.000491        -0.050697         0.959626 
  il  lag9                -0.000405        -0.047019         0.962552 
  in  lag1                 0.026091         0.342945         0.732056 
  in  lag2                 0.004078         0.105646         0.915986 
  in  lag3                 0.001297         0.050269         0.959966 
  in  lag4                 0.000565         0.029196         0.976742 
  in  lag5                 0.000303         0.019561         0.984416 
  in  lag6                 0.000329         0.025447         0.979728 
  in  lag7                 0.000375         0.033857         0.973031 
  in  lag8                 0.000104         0.010748         0.991437 
  in  lag9                 0.000008         0.000944         0.999248 
  ky  lag1                 0.319000         2.129230         0.034650 
  ky  lag2                -0.024197        -0.068374         0.945567 
  ky  lag3                -0.025017        -0.090699         0.927837 
  ky  lag4                -0.008286        -0.038772         0.969117 
  ky  lag5                 0.023478         0.135208         0.892605 
  ky  lag6                -0.015093        -0.103483         0.917700 
  ky  lag7                -0.015452        -0.123001         0.902249 
  ky  lag8                -0.010532        -0.095567         0.923975 
  ky  lag9                -0.014649        -0.149300         0.881491 
  mi  lag1                -0.003231        -0.044336         0.964688 
  mi  lag2                 0.003178         0.083654         0.933428 
  mi  lag3                 0.000252         0.009841         0.992160 
  mi  lag4                -0.002361        -0.122470         0.902669 
  mi  lag5                -0.000378        -0.024462         0.980512 
  mi  lag6                -0.000507        -0.039287         0.968707 
  mi  lag7                -0.000335        -0.030270         0.975886 
  mi  lag8                -0.000246        -0.025403         0.979763 
  mi  lag9                -0.000227        -0.026337         0.979019 
  oh  lag1                 0.285328         1.929190         0.055344 
  oh  lag2                -0.158781        -0.476144         0.634573 
  oh  lag3                -0.123759        -0.459979         0.646109 
  oh  lag4                -0.057593        -0.271530         0.786307 
  oh  lag5                -0.019957        -0.114834         0.908710 
  oh  lag6                -0.014192        -0.096523         0.923217 
  oh  lag7                 0.000312         0.002458         0.998042 
  oh  lag8                -0.006342        -0.057004         0.954608 
  oh  lag9                -0.002080        -0.020994         0.983275 
  pa  lag1                 0.333591         2.291650         0.023131 
  pa  lag2                 0.360988         1.235802         0.218208 
  pa  lag3                 0.111271         0.472664         0.637049 
  pa  lag4                 0.084801         0.434394         0.664543 
  pa  lag5                 0.013552         0.082741         0.934153 
  pa  lag6                -0.029623        -0.210368         0.833628 
  pa  lag7                -0.020554        -0.167005         0.867561 
  pa  lag8                -0.020206        -0.185151         0.853327 
  pa  lag9                -0.025627        -0.261738         0.793835 
  tn  lag1                 0.004680         0.061377         0.951130 
  tn  lag2                 0.003175         0.082197         0.934585 
  tn  lag3                -0.000164        -0.006362         0.994931 
  tn  lag4                 0.000110         0.005672         0.995481 
  tn  lag5                -0.000822        -0.053007         0.957788 
  tn  lag6                 0.000083         0.006411         0.994892 
  tn  lag7                 0.000172         0.015490         0.987659 
  tn  lag8                 0.000153         0.015751         0.987452 
  tn  lag9                -0.000004        -0.000509         0.999594 
  wv  lag1                 0.036726         0.545894         0.585842 
  wv  lag2                 0.003651         0.096682         0.923091 
  wv  lag3                 0.002109         0.082807         0.934101 
  wv  lag4                 0.000725         0.037747         0.969933 
  wv  lag5                 0.000220         0.014287         0.988618 
  wv  lag6                -0.000532        -0.041342         0.967071 
  wv  lag7                -0.000286        -0.025959         0.979320 
  wv  lag8                -0.000226        -0.023355         0.981394 
  wv  lag9                -0.000458        -0.053316         0.957542 
ec term   il              -0.394151        -0.721364         0.471659 
ec term   in              -0.776029        -1.532316         0.127271 
ec term   ky               0.738342         0.801374         0.424014 
ec term   mi              -1.011851        -1.007665         0.315022 
ec term   oh               1.448085         1.723863         0.086519 
ec term   pa               1.226926         1.464199         0.144954 
constant                 -25.149968        -1.108176         0.269324 



 Johansen MLE estimates 
NULL:          Trace Statistic         Crit 90%         Crit 95%         Crit 99% 
r <= 0     il          307.689          153.634          159.529          171.090 
r <= 1     in          205.384          120.367          125.619          135.982 
r <= 2     ky          129.133           91.109           95.754          104.964 
r <= 3     mi           83.310           65.820           69.819           77.820 
r <= 4     oh           52.520           44.493           47.855           54.682 
r <= 5     pa           30.200           27.067           29.796           35.463 
r <= 6     tn           13.842           13.429           15.494           19.935 
r <= 7     wv            0.412            2.705            3.841            6.635 

NULL:          Eigen Statistic         Crit 90%         Crit 95%         Crit 99% 
r <= 0     il          102.305           49.285           52.362           58.663 
r <= 1     in           76.251           43.295           46.230           52.307 
r <= 2     ky           45.823           37.279           40.076           45.866 
r <= 3     mi           30.791           31.238           33.878           39.369 
r <= 4     oh           22.319           25.124           27.586           32.717 
r <= 5     pa           16.359           18.893           21.131           25.865 
r <= 6     tn           13.430           12.297           14.264           18.520 
r <= 7     wv            0.412            2.705            3.841            6.635 

